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As the city starts March nearly 5 feet behind the normal snowfall for the season, Flagstaff's long-range forecast doesn't show much upcoming relief from the dry conditions.

Taking a look back on the winter’s lack of snow or significant precipitation, as well as looking ahead to the temperatures and precipitation expected from March to June, Meteorologist-in-Charge Brian Klimowski and warning coordination meteorologist Megan Taylor from the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Bellemont detailed the current drought conditions in northern Arizona to the Coconino County Board of Supervisors during its Feb. 25 meeting.

“It’s wonderful to be outside, but it serves as a sobering reminder of the dry winter that we’ve had,� Klimowski said. “It’s been one of the driest winters we’ve had, and we have very good reason to be concerned about our upcoming fire season.�

As of Feb. 26, Flagstaff remained 56.5 inches below normal for snowfall this season with just 11.2 inches so far, and the city is 4.10 inches below normal for precipitation since Oct. 1. Those totals have led to severe or extreme drought conditions around Flagstaff as of Feb. 20’s data, with the region previously experiencing moderate drought conditions at this time a year ago.

“Clearly worsening drought conditions. Much of Coconino County is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions,� Taylor said. “Even just in the last four weeks, drought conditions have worsened by one or even two categories.�

Taylor shared a look back at the percentage of normal precipitation over the past 90 days, with nearly all of Arizona coming in well below normal with somewhere between 0% to 25% of the normal precipitation. While portions of Coconino County shifted into the 25% to 50% range following the storm on Feb. 13 and 14, the snowpack across the county is significantly diminished compared to the normal measurements.

Specifically, the snow-water equivalent of the measured snowpack locations in the area were well below 50% of the median. The snow-water equivalent refers to the depth of liquid water that would occur if the snowpack were to completely melt, essentially serving as a measurement of the total amount of water contained in the snowpack at a given time.

Many of the existing snowpack locations measured at or below an inch, with the measurement at White Horse Lake and Heber the lowest snowpack on record -- which stretches back about 40 years. Fort Valley’s snow-water equivalent measured at 0% of the median, Mormon Mountain was at 2%, and it was just 16% at the measurement location south of Camp Navajo and southwest of Flagstaff.

Looking ahead to March and the traditional fire season between April and June, the climate prediction center shows much of the same for the northern Arizona region and the state overall.

For March, there’s a 33% to 50% chance of higher-than-normal temperatures and a 33% to 50% chance of lower-than-normal precipitation. The odds for continued dry conditions increase in the outlook for fire season, with a 40% to 50% chance of below-normal precipitation and a 40% to 60% chance of above-normal temperatures.

“Putting all these pieces together, this leads to what the drought is going to look like,� Taylor said. “We are expecting drought to persist across all of northern Arizona through the spring months.�

While northern Arizona’s outlook on fire potential remains normal through March, the outlook shifts the White Mountains area above normal for April and the entire eastern half of Arizona above normal for May, including the Mogollon Rim.

“Our message here is that if the dry conditions persist into the spring, there is potential for an extended and significant wildfire season,� Taylor said.

The complete presentation can be found on the .